Omnibus Negotiations Continue

Key Dates
December 23, 2022 – Continuing Resolution Expires: 7 days
January 3, 2023 – Swearing-in of 118th Congress: 18 days

This week, Washington had a serious deadline to meet: extend the continuing resolution or the government shuts down. Luckily, Congress managed to pass an extension to the CR and send it to the President’s desk in time.

Here’s what else you may have missed this week:

Continuing Resolution Heads to the President’s Desk; Negotiations on Omnibus Ongoing. Late Wednesday, the House passed the continuing resolution (CR) nearly along party lines, with only nine Republicans joining all Democrats. The stopgap measure was subsequently passed by the Senate 71-19, with all 19 “no” votes being Republicans. The continuing resolution is now set to expire December 23, buying Congressional negotiators time to finalize the FY23 omnibus. There were two proposed amendments in the Senate, which failed: changing the stopgap’s expiration date to next March, and an amendment to eliminate tens of billions of dollars in mandatory IRS spending.

This comes as, late Tuesday, three of the four top Congressional appropriators – Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT), House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), and Senate Appropriations Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-AL) – announced they had a framework for an FY23 omnibus. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said a vote must occur by December 22. Roll Call has reported that “while the regular or ‘base’ subcommittee allocations appeared settled, there was at least one outstanding issue on the emergency funding title appropriators are planning to add.” While we still wait for specific details, news outlets have reported that it will provide close to $1.7 trillion in discretionary spending for FY23, including about $858 billion for defense and a still-undetermined amount of emergency aid for Ukraine and natural disasters.

Senate Passes National Defense Authorization Act, Heads to the President’s Desk. Late Thursday, the Senate passed the FY2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) 83-11. It authorizes $847 billion in national defense spending, $45 billion above the President’s request. Among other things, the bill repeals the COVID-19 vaccine mandate for military members but doesn’t reinstate members of the military who were discharged or had their benefits cut for refusing to get the vaccine. This was a major sticking point for Congressional Republicans. It also includes the largest military pay raise in 20 years. Notably, Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) permitting legislation was not added to the bill and died on the Senate floor.

Biden Recommits American Engagement in Africa. President Biden doubled down on American engagement in Africa during a speech at the US-Africa Leaders Summit. He promised billions of dollars in new financing commitments and to help pursue democracy efforts on the continent. He also underscored his support for the African Union getting a permanent seat at the G20. This comes as China makes more entreaties throughout Africa.

Bipartisan Immigration Deal Shelved, Work Set to Resume in 2023. Negotiations on this front, led by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), fizzled despite a promising start. They were not able to strike a deal that would have secured 60 votes. However, Congressional aides have leaked to the press that a framework stemming from the talks could serve as the basis for a bill in the next Congress.

December 16 Deadline Rapidly Approaches

Key Dates
December 15, 2022 – Target Adjournment of 117th Congress: 6 days
December 16, 2022 – Continuing Resolution Expires: 7 days
January 3, 2023 – Swearing-in of 118th Congress: 25 days

The news this week focused on the limited amount of time left this Congress before the new one begins January 3. Here’s what you might have missed this week:

Negotiations on FY23 Spending Bill Continue. Amid an impasse, Senate and House Appropriations Chairs Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Patrick Leahy (D-VT) are introducing their own omnibus bills Monday. However, Republicans have rejected it out-of-hand. It is looking almost certain that a short-term continuing resolution (CR) will be passed before this current iteration lapses December 16. Many are beginning to discuss the possibility of a year-long CR, which the Department of Defense has said would dramatically impact military readiness and national security.

However, the fact remains that Democrats and Republicans have yet to agree on a topline number, with Republicans holding firm that there should not be increases in domestic spending.

House Passes NDAA. The House passed the FY23 National Defense Authorization Act 350-80. The bill is a record $858 billion, $45 billion more than what was proposed by President Joe Biden. The bill’s executive summary can be found here. The Senate is expected to pass the NDAA next week, sending it to the White House for President Biden to sign into law.

Warnock Win Reelection; Sinema Becomes an Independent. On Tuesday, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) was reelected by over three points against former Heisman winner Herschel Walker (R), giving Senate Democrats a 51-49 majority.

However, this morning, Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) announced that she had switched her party affiliation from Democrat to Independent. However, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) just announced that she will keep her committee assignments through the Democrats. While this does not impact the balance of power in the Senate, it nominally kicks off the 2024 Senate race in Arizona, as the state Democratic Party is enraged by the move. It is worth monitoring if she shifts further throughout this coming year.

Key Dates
December 15, 2022 – Target Adjournment of 117th Congress: 13 days
December 16, 2022 – Continuing Resolution Expires: 14 days
January 3, 2023 – Swearing-in of 118th Congress: 32 days

This was the second week of freshman orientation for new Members of the House, so Washington was abuzz. Beyond this, both the House and Senate were in session. House & Senate leaders continue to meet on key legislative priorities in the end-of-year sprint. Here’s what you might have missed:

Rail Crisis Averted. With Christmas approaching, the White House asked Congress to ratify the agreement settled on by the White House, the leadership of the rail workers’ organizations, and industry. The rank-and-file of many of the rail workers’ organizations had rejected the settlement, and the White House did not want to risk a rail strike during the holiday season. The main sticking point was the number of provided sick days under the agreement. As a result, the House passed two bills: one to pass the underlying agreement, and one to provide seven additional sick days. The Senate only ratified the underlying agreement, though a handful of Republicans joined most Democrats in voting for the sick days provision. Many commentators view this as a “lose-lose” for the President: he either upset organized labor, or he risked snarled supply chains. President Biden signed the legislation this morning.

House Republicans Opt to Keep Earmarks in House Majority. This week, the House Republican Conference voted to allow earmarks by a 158-52 margin. The Bipartisan Policy Center wrote an op-ed in their defense earlier this week, which you can find here. News reports indicate that while earmarks will stay, House Republicans will likely tweak them. Your WSW team continues to track this development.

One somewhat related note: more than half of the Republicans who were in Congress in 2017 won’t be in office at the start of this upcoming Congress.

Omnibus Negotiations Ongoing. On Tuesday, the House and Senate legislative leaders met with President Biden and Vice President Harris to discuss ongoing omnibus negotiations. As a reminder, the current continuing resolution expires December 16, though many are beginning to suggest another continuing resolution through December 23. While Republicans are willing to play ball – Minority Leader McConnell agreed that an omnibus is better than a year-long continuing resolution – it will come at a cost. Republicans are seeking increased defense spending as a concession, with the logic that Democrats have spent enough on domestic spending through the Inflation Reduction Act and other measures. Roll Call has more coverage here.

NDAA Negotiations Continue. A compromise on the FY23 National Defense Appropriation Act (NDAA) emerged Wednesday. The deal would set the budget topline of the FY2023 at $847 billion for national defense, and would go as high as $858 billion when including programs that fall outside of the jurisdiction of the Senate and House Armed Services committees. This is a full $45 billion higher than President Biden’s initial proposal. There is one potential roadblock: some Republican Senators have threatened to block the bill over the Administration’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate. While they alone cannot block the bill’s passage, it can dramatically draw out the length of time it will take to pass.

House Democrats Begin to Round Out Leadership. With the “Big 3” settled, House Democrats filled out much of the rest of their leadership roster this week. Most notably, current Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) will now serve as Assistant Democratic Leader, after Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI) dropped out. Other Members who took roles in Democratic leadership include Joe Neguse (D-CO), Dean Phillips (D-MN), Veronica Escobar (D-TX), and Lauren Underwood (D-IL).

Longtime House Democratic Leader Passes the Torch

Key Dates
December 15, 2022 – Target Adjournment of 117th Congress: 27 days
December 16, 2022 – Continuing Resolution Expires: 28 days
January 3, 2023 – Swearing-in of 118th Congress: 46 days

The election results are becoming much more clear, with Republicans clinching enough seats to control the House and Democrats holding the Senate. Below are links to updated WSW reports putting these developments into context:

• WSW Post-Midterm Report
• House and Senate Committee Strikethroughs
• Open Seats (House, Senate) and Flipped Seat Reports

Meanwhile, Congress kicked off the lame duck period this week, facing a long to-do list. While they did not get through much of it ahead of the Thanksgiving break, several notable things happened. Here’s what you might have missed:

The Democratic House “Triumvirate” Takes a Step Back. Yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – the first woman ever elected Speaker – confirmed what many had suspected: she will not seek the position of House Democratic Leader next Congress. Shortly thereafter, her two lieutenants – Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) – also announced they would step aside and not seek the other top two positions in Democratic leadership. Instead, they are “passing the torch” to the next generation. As it currently stands, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is likely to be the Democratic Leader, Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA) will be Minority Whip, and Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) will be Conference Chair. While formal elections have yet to occur, Democratic insiders have said they hope for a “bloodless” transition, and they seem on track for that outcome.

Trump Announces Another Run for President. On Tuesday, former President Trump announced that he would once again seek the Republican nomination for President. While several Republicans immediately came forward and endorsed him, many potential 2024 contenders – including Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), Tim Scott (R-SC), and former Vice President Mike Pence – did not. Your WSW team will continue to monitor how this may impact the nascent House Republican Majority.

Omnibus Deal Inches Closer. This week, Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT) said he thought he was “pretty close” to an agreement with Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-AL), both of whom retiring at the end of this Congress. The goal is to get a conference framework agreement before Thanksgiving. The issues here remain the same as when Congress adjourned for the final weeks of the mid-term election campaign, including how best to divide funding between defense and non-defense discretionary spending and whether to include policy riders that either side considers to be “poison pills.” The White House also asked for additional supplemental funding: $27.7 billion for Ukraine; $9 billion for additional COVID-19 operations funding; and an unspecified amount for disaster relief funding.

Senate Advances Legislation Protecting Same-Sex Marriage. Codifying the right to same-sex marriage passed a key procedural hurdle on Wednesday when the Senate voted 62-37 to end a filibuster on the measure. While the bill would not set a national requirement that all states must legalize same-sex marriage, it would require individual states to recognize another state’s legal marriage.

While this is notable in and of itself, it also shows that Congressional Democrats intend to move quickly on their outstanding lame duck items.

Key Dates
November 14, 2022 (House & Senate Return for “Lame Duck” Session): 4 days
December 15, 2022 (Target Adjournment of 117th Congress): 35 days
December 16, 2022 (Continuing Resolution Expires): 36 days

In this week’s edition of News & Notes, we take a look at what we’ve learned over the past 48 hours following the 2022 Midterm Elections, and what to expect in the coming days and weeks. A lot has happened, and much is left to occur.

Here’s what you need to know:

An Updated Political Report. Yesterday, your organization should have received a copy of WSW’s 2022 Post-Election Report, where we examined the state-of-play. You can find our revised report – providing additional information as to what we know about the election – here. Topline, however, the Senate has come down to three seats: Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. The former two are still tallying votes, while Georgia is guaranteed to head to a runoff. In the House, according to NBC News, Republicans have won 210 seats while Democrats have won 192. 33 remain uncalled. We are mostly waiting on races to be called in seats west of the Mississippi River.

We will be providing periodic updates via News and Notes through the rest of the year, to avoid giving you a daily blow-by-blow.

Lame Duck Items to Consider. Here is a non-exhaustive list of items to be keeping your eye on as we enter the lame-duck period of this Congress:

• Passing an FY23 appropriations omnibus (or at least passing another continuing resolution)
• Passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act
• Protections for same-sex marriage
• Modernizing the Electoral Count Act
• Energy permitting changes
• Hurricane relief
• Aid for Ukraine
• A water resources bill
• Renewal of federal flood insurance
• A cap on insulin prices
• Extensions of targeted tax credits
• Enhanced retirement savings

House Leadership Elections, Other Notable Dates Announced. House Republican leadership elections are scheduled for next Monday, November 14. House Democratic leadership elections are scheduled for after Thanksgiving, November 30. New Member Orientation is spread across two weeks – November 14-18 and November 28-December 2.

Donald Trump Likely to Launch a Presidential Run. Before the midterms, former President Trump teased that he would launch his presidential comeback bid the day before. Instead, he punted to next week. With disappointing results for House & Senate Republicans, some expected him to pump the breaks. Instead, he’s moving forward, and plans to make a “big announcement” on November 15.

Today, our WSW political reports provide a preview of what will be significant changes on many House and Senate Committees. Even before the election, and before we know which party will be in the Majority or Minority, we know there will be key vacancies for Chairs and Ranking Members on key Committees. These reports provide a comprehensive look at where these known changes in Committee leadership will take place, as well as highlights where there are already committee “slots” open for rank-and-file Members to seek assignments to those Committees. We will be updating this report after the election, and as Chairs and Ranking Members are selected by their respective parties and rank-and-file Members receive updated Committee assignments.

House Report
Senate Report

As we all await and anticipate the results of the November 8th election and its impact in terms of which party controls the House and Senate and what that means for policy and political agendas in 2023, there are some things we already know today.

For instance, there are a significant number of “open seats” in both the House (68) and Senate (8). These open seats come as a result of Members who have retired, been redistricted out of House seats, or were defeated in primaries. Again, that means there will be a large number of new Members- and Senators-elect in both the House and Senate, and these reports preview who those new Members- and Senators-elect will be. We recommend using these reports to familiarize yourself with the likely new Members/Senators as well as using it to think through with your WSW team lead on where there might be recognizable natural alliances between your organization and these new Members, and plan for outreach accordingly once they are sworn in to office in January.

These reports will be updated for you after the election and will include actual election results, along with other new Members- and Senators-elect from seats where any current incumbent is defeated, resulting in yet more new faces in Congress.

House Report
Senate Report

Key Dates
November 8, 2022 (Election Day): 32 days
November 14, 2022 (House & Senate Return for “Lame Duck” Session): 38 days
December 15, 2022 (Target Adjournment of 117th Congress): 67 days
December 16, 2022 (Continuing Resolution Expires): 68 days

With the continuing resolution (CR) signed into law, this was the first week with Congress out of session. Additionally, the campaign season is in the home stretch, though control of the House and Senate control remains murky. Your WSW team is using this time to begin planning for a new Congress for your organization, as well as tracking implementation of the major legislation that has resulted from this Congress.

Here’s what you might’ve missed as well as what to keep an eye out for on the horizon:

Another Lame Duck Item: Hurricane Relief. Following the devastation wrought by Hurricane Ian, it has become abundantly clear that Congress will need to provide relief to storm-struck areas. While a federal aid estimate is currently unknown, observers expect tens of billions of dollars in relief. Nearly every Republican in the Florida delegation signed onto a letter to Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Kay Granger (R-TX) urging for “clean” relief, in an effort to avoid potential policy riders. It is possible, however, that this relief aid will just be added to an FY23 spending bill – as a reminder, the CR expires December 16.

A Potential 2023 Complication: Raising the Debt Limit. While the exact date is uncertain, it is near-certain that Congress will need to raise the debt limit sometime in 2023. Axios released an interesting article last week outlining what that situation might look like, and reported that there are concerns that it could lead to a debt crisis similar to 2011.

Biden Pardons Marijuana Offenses, Calls for Review of Drug Scheduling. On Thursday, President Biden grants a pardon to all people convicted of simple marijuana possession under federal law. He also urged states to take similar actions, and asked the Attorney General and Secretary of HHS to review how marijuana is scheduled under federal law.

A Political Update. For a look at the “horse racing” in the race for the House and the Senate, we advise looking at the following articles from this week:

• FiveThirtyEight: “The Seats Republicans Could Flip To Win The House In 2022” – Full Article
• Cook Political Report: “Which Way Is the Wind Blowing?” – Full Article
• The Hill: “Five takeaways from the Kelly-Masters Debate in Arizona” – Full Article
• Politico: “Republicans gain ground in Senate races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin” – Full Article

Key Dates
November 8, 2022 (Election Day): 39 days
November 14, 2022 (House & Senate Return for “Lame Duck” Session): 45 days
December 15, 2022 (Target Adjournment of 117th Congress): 74 days
December 16, 2022 (Continuing Resolution Expires): 75

This week, Congress has completed its big must-do – passing a continuing resolution – to keep the government running temporarily through mid-December. Now, Members of the House and many Senators return home to campaign.

After the election, the current Members of Congress will return for a lame duck session (with a planned return on Monday, November 14) where they may or may not be able to clear the decks of major legislation before the new Congress starts in January. We expect the wish list for the lame duck session to be long, but what they will be able to get done will be highly impacted by the election results. If Republicans take either the House or Senate, they may not be willing to negotiate on much.

Here’s what else you might have missed this week.

Congress Passes Continuing Resolution, Averting a Government Shutdown. Yesterday, the Senate passed a continuing resolution (CR) by a 72-25 margin. The House followed suit today by a 230-201 vote. The CR also includes $12 billion in aid for Ukraine, $2.5 billion to aid New Mexico in its recovery from a wildfire, $1 billion in funding a low-income home heating program, and $20 million in emergency to address the water crisis in Jackson, MS. It keeps the government running through mid-December. One notable item not in the measure is additional funding for vaccines and testing for COVID-19 and monkeypox. Now, Congress will need to come back and pass either yet another CR or fully pass a budget for FY23. This article is useful in outlining what might be in a potential omnibus.

Electoral Count Act Legislation Has Legs in the Senate. On Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell voiced his support for legislation to modernize the Electoral Count Act. Over a dozen Republicans have already signed on to the measure. This bodes well for the bill’s prospects, and will be an item that Congress will likely consider upon its return in November.

Items that Might be Covered in Lame Duck. Several items – including the aforementioned omnibus and Electoral Count Act reform – will be considered in lame duck. Here are just some of the items that are on the possible list for action:

• Marriage equality
• Congressional stock trading
• The FY2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
• Judges (in the Senate)
• Recommendations of the January 6th Commission
• Social Security/retirement legislation
• Insulin legislation
• Aid to states impacted by Hurricane Ian
• Tax extenders

As our team continues to survey the landscape, additional items may be added – or taken away. Your WSW team will continue to keep you updated on this front.

For a historical look, the Senate website maintains a list going back to the 1940s on what other Congresses focused on in lame duck – you can find it here.

For Your Radar: the Return of Federal Discretionary Spending Caps. This week, House Republicans released a bill that would impose a cap on federal discretionary spending for the next ten years. While this obviously will not go anywhere this Congress, it is a sign of the direction a Republican-led House will go if elected. This would be a marked change from the significantly higher domestic spending initiatives undertaken by the White House and Congressional Democrats over the past year and a half.

Key Dates
October 1, 2022 (Fiscal Year 2023 Begins): 8 days
November 8, 2022 (Election Day): 46 days
November 9, 2022 (Senate Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 47 days
November 14, 2022 (House Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 52 days
December 15, 2022 (Target Adjournment of 117th Congress): 81 days

With only a small handful of legislative days before the October recess – when Members of the House and Senate head home to campaign – Congress still has a long to do list and there are many efforts at last minute deals. Here’s what you might’ve missed, as well as what you might expect next week:

Congress Expected to Pass a Temporary Continuing Resolution to Keep Government Open after September 30: A Must Do. In an election year especially, no one in Washington wants a government shutdown. One of the key sticking points remains a permitting reform component championed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), which Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) remains committed to including the final bill. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that, between Republicans and progressive Democrats, Schumer and Manchin don’t have the votes.

In the event that these provisions are not included, expect a generally “clean” continuing resolution (CR). Additional aid for Ukraine will also likely be in, while COVID-19 relief funds will likely be left out. There are two other mysteries: the scale of disaster assistance that may be included, as well as how long the CR will run. For the latter, it is likely that the CR will run until December 16. However, as we reported last week, some Republicans are pushing for it to run into the next Congress, in hopes that they have control of one or both chambers and can put for their own policy priorities in these must-pass funding bills.

Senate Returning for NDAA in October? Despite the scheduled recess, some reports have begun to emerge that the Senate may be called back in October to debate and vote on the FY23 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Senate Majority Leader Schumer said “NDAA will be part of what we do.” The House already passed its version in July.

New Republican Agenda Released Today. Today, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – flanked by both moderate and conservative members of his caucus – released his “Commitment to America,” a flashback to Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” from the 1990s. The plan proposes increasing U.S. energy production to address high gas prices, boosting funding to hire more police, and reimposing Trump-era border restrictions to stem the flow of migrants coming from Mexico, among other items. This is the culmination of years-long effort by McCarthy – done through task forces – to make sure House Republicans have a plan to start implementing day 1 should they retake the House.

House Passes Four Law Enforcement Bills. After months of tense negotiations between moderate and progressive Democrats, the House passed four bills related to law enforcement. This vote comes as moderate Democrats are increasingly being hit on the campaign trail for being “anti-police.” These bills represent an effort to help at-risk Democrat lawmakers, especially those in suburban districts.

Political Update. With Election Day just weeks away, Cook Political Report has several more Democratic toss-ups than Republican toss-ups, and they still predict the House as more likely to flip to a Republican Majority control than not. The Senate is a toss-up, though Democrats are defending five seats and Republicans are defending two in their model. If the Georgia Senate seat goes to a runoff, we may not even know which party will control the Senate until into the new year.