Key Dates
November 8, 2022 (Election Day): 39 days
November 14, 2022 (House & Senate Return for “Lame Duck” Session): 45 days
December 15, 2022 (Target Adjournment of 117th Congress): 74 days
December 16, 2022 (Continuing Resolution Expires): 75

This week, Congress has completed its big must-do – passing a continuing resolution – to keep the government running temporarily through mid-December. Now, Members of the House and many Senators return home to campaign.

After the election, the current Members of Congress will return for a lame duck session (with a planned return on Monday, November 14) where they may or may not be able to clear the decks of major legislation before the new Congress starts in January. We expect the wish list for the lame duck session to be long, but what they will be able to get done will be highly impacted by the election results. If Republicans take either the House or Senate, they may not be willing to negotiate on much.

Here’s what else you might have missed this week.

Congress Passes Continuing Resolution, Averting a Government Shutdown. Yesterday, the Senate passed a continuing resolution (CR) by a 72-25 margin. The House followed suit today by a 230-201 vote. The CR also includes $12 billion in aid for Ukraine, $2.5 billion to aid New Mexico in its recovery from a wildfire, $1 billion in funding a low-income home heating program, and $20 million in emergency to address the water crisis in Jackson, MS. It keeps the government running through mid-December. One notable item not in the measure is additional funding for vaccines and testing for COVID-19 and monkeypox. Now, Congress will need to come back and pass either yet another CR or fully pass a budget for FY23. This article is useful in outlining what might be in a potential omnibus.

Electoral Count Act Legislation Has Legs in the Senate. On Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell voiced his support for legislation to modernize the Electoral Count Act. Over a dozen Republicans have already signed on to the measure. This bodes well for the bill’s prospects, and will be an item that Congress will likely consider upon its return in November.

Items that Might be Covered in Lame Duck. Several items – including the aforementioned omnibus and Electoral Count Act reform – will be considered in lame duck. Here are just some of the items that are on the possible list for action:

• Marriage equality
• Congressional stock trading
• The FY2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
• Judges (in the Senate)
• Recommendations of the January 6th Commission
• Social Security/retirement legislation
• Insulin legislation
• Aid to states impacted by Hurricane Ian
• Tax extenders

As our team continues to survey the landscape, additional items may be added – or taken away. Your WSW team will continue to keep you updated on this front.

For a historical look, the Senate website maintains a list going back to the 1940s on what other Congresses focused on in lame duck – you can find it here.

For Your Radar: the Return of Federal Discretionary Spending Caps. This week, House Republicans released a bill that would impose a cap on federal discretionary spending for the next ten years. While this obviously will not go anywhere this Congress, it is a sign of the direction a Republican-led House will go if elected. This would be a marked change from the significantly higher domestic spending initiatives undertaken by the White House and Congressional Democrats over the past year and a half.

Key Dates
October 1, 2022 (Fiscal Year 2023 Begins): 8 days
November 8, 2022 (Election Day): 46 days
November 9, 2022 (Senate Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 47 days
November 14, 2022 (House Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 52 days
December 15, 2022 (Target Adjournment of 117th Congress): 81 days

With only a small handful of legislative days before the October recess – when Members of the House and Senate head home to campaign – Congress still has a long to do list and there are many efforts at last minute deals. Here’s what you might’ve missed, as well as what you might expect next week:

Congress Expected to Pass a Temporary Continuing Resolution to Keep Government Open after September 30: A Must Do. In an election year especially, no one in Washington wants a government shutdown. One of the key sticking points remains a permitting reform component championed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), which Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) remains committed to including the final bill. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that, between Republicans and progressive Democrats, Schumer and Manchin don’t have the votes.

In the event that these provisions are not included, expect a generally “clean” continuing resolution (CR). Additional aid for Ukraine will also likely be in, while COVID-19 relief funds will likely be left out. There are two other mysteries: the scale of disaster assistance that may be included, as well as how long the CR will run. For the latter, it is likely that the CR will run until December 16. However, as we reported last week, some Republicans are pushing for it to run into the next Congress, in hopes that they have control of one or both chambers and can put for their own policy priorities in these must-pass funding bills.

Senate Returning for NDAA in October? Despite the scheduled recess, some reports have begun to emerge that the Senate may be called back in October to debate and vote on the FY23 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Senate Majority Leader Schumer said “NDAA will be part of what we do.” The House already passed its version in July.

New Republican Agenda Released Today. Today, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – flanked by both moderate and conservative members of his caucus – released his “Commitment to America,” a flashback to Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” from the 1990s. The plan proposes increasing U.S. energy production to address high gas prices, boosting funding to hire more police, and reimposing Trump-era border restrictions to stem the flow of migrants coming from Mexico, among other items. This is the culmination of years-long effort by McCarthy – done through task forces – to make sure House Republicans have a plan to start implementing day 1 should they retake the House.

House Passes Four Law Enforcement Bills. After months of tense negotiations between moderate and progressive Democrats, the House passed four bills related to law enforcement. This vote comes as moderate Democrats are increasingly being hit on the campaign trail for being “anti-police.” These bills represent an effort to help at-risk Democrat lawmakers, especially those in suburban districts.

Political Update. With Election Day just weeks away, Cook Political Report has several more Democratic toss-ups than Republican toss-ups, and they still predict the House as more likely to flip to a Republican Majority control than not. The Senate is a toss-up, though Democrats are defending five seats and Republicans are defending two in their model. If the Georgia Senate seat goes to a runoff, we may not even know which party will control the Senate until into the new year.

Key Dates
October 1, 2022 (Fiscal Year 2023 Begins): 15 days
November 8, 2022 (Election Day): 53 days
November 9, 2022 (Senate Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 54 days
November 14, 2022 (House Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 59 days
December 15, 2022 (Target Adjournment of 117th Congress): 88 days

Both the House and Senate were in session this week, but there are only seven legislative days currently scheduled before Members depart for the election – all of which means, Washington is on a tight schedule. Here’s what you might have missed:

Keeping the Government Operating. Congress will not reach agreement on the FY23 Appropriations bill before the end of September, so Congress will need to pass a short-term continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government functioning and avoid a shutdown. As simple as that may sound, there are hold ups, including whether or not to include Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) pipeline permitting legislation that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had promised to make a component of the bill. Some, such as Senate Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-AL), have speculated that text won’t be available until toward the end of the month. While the short-term extension is expected to go until mid-December, there are some Republican Senators – Rick Scott (FL), Mike Lee (UT), and Ted Cruz (TX) – pushing for an even later extension until 2023, where they anticipate Republicans could have both a Senate and House Majority and therefore put their own and more significant imprint on FY23 spending bills, including blocking the Administration’s plans for thousands of more IRS agents.

Railroad Companies, Unions Strike a Deal, Averting Shutdown. Earlier this week, there was significant concern that the nation’s railroad companies and their employees would not be able to make a labor deal. The unions representing those employees promised to strike if their demands were not met. The White House, Congress, and industries nationwide were concerned, as a shutdown of our rail system would have massive economic consequences. In the end, however, Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh helped facilitate an agreement. Though the rank-and-file must now approve the deal, many are viewing this as a major victory for the Biden Administration.

Senate Republicans Urge a Vote on NDAA. The Hill recently reported that two dozen Senate Republicans are pushing for a for on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The House passed their version in July, and the Senate Armed Services Committee approved its bill in July as well. Action on NDAA would be a highly likely candidate for final action in lame duck if it can’t be achieved this month, which still remains a possibility. More details can be found here.

Same-Sex Marriage Vote Punted to After Midterms. On Thursday, the sponsors of the same-sex marriage legislation in the Senate announced that they will instead push for a vote after the midterms instead of before them. They opted for this strategy after it became clear that there would be far more votes at that time than now – and questions remained over whether there were even 60 “yes” votes.

Primaries End; Campaign Season Picks Up. This week marked the formal end to primary season, with voters in RI, NH, and DE (including President Biden) casting their ballots. Now, with just over 50 days until the election, campaigns are ramping up their activities to an even higher degree. Handicappers currently see a narrow House Majority and, perhaps, a 50-50 Senate once again.

Key Dates
October 1, 2022 (Fiscal Year 2023 Begins): 22 days
November 8, 2022 (Election Day): 60 days
November 9, 2022 (Senate Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 61 days
November 14, 2022 (House Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 66 days
December 15, 2022 (Target Adjournment of 117th Congress): 95 days

The Senate was back in session this week after their summer recess, and the House returns next week. There is a lot on the Congressional “to do” list before they leave again for the campaign trail in October. Here’s what you might have missed, as well as what is to come.

Funding the Government. The fiscal year ends September 30 – 21 days from today. Congress will need to pass a temporary continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government funded, because there is no agreement between House and Senate on the regular FY23 appropriations bills. The temporary extension is expected to keep the government funded through December 16 so we can also look ahead to a lively lame duck session after the election and before the New Year and new Congress.

Administration Requests Supplemental Funds. President Biden has asked Congress for an additional $47.1 billion in emergency funds (or “anomalies”), parts of which will face opposition from Republicans, especially additional COVID-19 and monkeypox aid. There’s also a push by Democratic leadership to include environmental permitting reform legislation to the CR, though this will likely cause objections by progressive Democrats.

Same-Sex Marriage Bill Vote in the Offing. Though Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had floated including this vote in the CR, objections from both proponents and detractors caused a pivot to a standalone vote. The bill’s sponsors – Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Susan Collins (R-ME) – are optimistic that there will be 60 votes on the measure. The vote is expected the week of September 19.

Trump-era Tariffs Remain in Place. Late last Friday, the Biden Administration said it will keep Trump-era tariffs in place while it continues a review of the duties. The Administration said it had received feedback from stakeholders underscoring the importance of not upending them.

Key Dates
October 1, 2022 (Fiscal Year 2023 Begins): 36 days
November 8, 2022 (Election Day): 74 days
November 9, 2022 (Senate Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 75 days
November 14, 2022 (House Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 80 days
December 15, 2022 (Target Adjournment of 117th Congress): 109 days

Between the President’s announcement on student loan relief and hotly contested primary races in key states like New York, another week of Congress’s annual August recess was markedly less quiet this year than in years past.

With August winding down and Labor Day fast approaching, kids are headed back to school and Congress will soon be back in session. The Senate will return to Washington on Tuesday, September 6. The House will resume holding remote hearings that day, though Representatives won’t physically return to Washington for votes until Tuesday, September 13.

The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act concluded more than 18 months of discussion in the media and on Capitol Hill about what might be in that package, and crossed a significant item off Democrats’ “to do” list. But Congress still faces a daunting workload. Before September 30, Congress must act on the following:

• Continuing Resolution (CR). The House and Senate have much work yet to do on the Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 spending bills, so expect a CR kicking the can past September 30. How long the CR will be and whether another one (or two…) will be required remains an open question.
• User Fee Amendments (UFAs). Both the House and Senate have been working for months to reauthorize the Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments (PDUFA), Generic Drug User Fee Amendments (GDUFA), Biosimilar User Fee Amendments (BsUFA), and Medical Device User Fee Amendments (MDUFA), all of which expire September 30. Before Congress broke for August, a key Senator upended negotiations, with no clear path forward. The FDA will soon have to issue “reduction in force” notices to employees in preparation for a lapse in authorization, bringing the FDA’s work in these areas to a grinding halt.
• National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The full House passed its version of the FY2023 NDAA in July, and while the Senate Armed Services Committee passed its version in June, the full Senate has not yet voted on the package. While it doesn’t provide funding, this annual bill sets policy for DoD and is considered “must pass.”

A number of other priorities remain on lawmakers’ radars, which could get addressed during September, but more likely during the post-election Lame Duck session. Those include:

• Medicare and tax extenders
• Mental health legislation
• “CURES 2.0” or other action on ARPA-H
• Monkeypox response

A more detailed list of upcoming authorization and funding deadlines is available here.

Key Dates
October 1, 2022 (Fiscal Year 2023 Begins): 43 days
November 8, 2022 (Election Day): 81 days
November 9, 2022 (Senate Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 82 days
November 14, 2022 (House Returns for “Lame Duck” Session): 87 days
December 15, 2022 (Target Adjournment of 117th Congress): 116 days

For federal regulators at Executive Branch agencies, the moment Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (aka, the reconciliation bill) on Tuesday, the starting gun for a race to write new policies to implement its clean energy tax credits, climate programs, environmental mandates, and healthcare policies began. It’s a monumental task that will involve stakeholders at nearly every federal agency.

For instance:

• The Department of Transportation must fashion a new grant program to propel sustainable aviation fuel projects;
• The Department of Energy will need to vet applications for billions of dollars’ worth of federal loan guarantees;
• The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must create new programs to curb methane emissions and standardize how companies report on greenhouse gas releases. The EPA also has 180 days to steer $27 billion in a new Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund to green banks that can catalyze critical emission-fighting technology. Recipients could include a yet-to-be established national green bank; and
• The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) needs to develop plans to spend the $80 billion allocated for enhanced tax enforcement to find the revenue to fund these programs and pursue deficit reduction.

The stakes are incredibly high as massive amounts of private investment hangs in the balance. Much of it is tethered to policies that will be written by the IRS, which must develop new guidance for dozens of new and expanded tax credits. Bloomberg has also reported that some companies lured by those tax incentives — but wary of mistakes that could forfeit them — will be waiting for the IRS documents before signing off on new renewable power ventures, manufacturing plants, and hydrogen projects. One thing companies will want clarity on is how they can satisfy prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements to secure the full value of some clean energy tax credits. The law allows projects to get an exemption from those criteria as long as they begin construction within 60 days of the guidance being issued.

President Biden’s Medicare chief, Chiquita Brooks-LaSure, is pledging to meet critical deadlines for implementing the policies in Democrats’ spending package aimed at lowering seniors’ drug costs. Biden’s official green light lets hiring and contracting begin as the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is planning to bring on more staff, particularly to help out with efforts around letting Medicare negotiate the price of drugs for the first time and extending enhanced Obamacare subsidies for another three years. The CMS strategy is based lessons learned from ACA implementation.

The federal agencies are working on a tight timetable, seeking to propose and finalize new rules well before the end of Biden’s first term. If Biden isn’t reelected, regulations that don’t get finished under his watch will fall to his successor, who may not be eager to impose aggressive emissions and efficiency requirements. Even if work wraps up quickly, legal challenges are inevitable for most major environmental rules on the horizon, and a future administration may abandon defending them in court.

As we look to the rest of the year, a full list of upcoming Congressional fiscal policy deadlines can be found here.

Additional Summer Reading

• “Tech industry’s critical policy issues likely tabled as Congress heads for recess,” CNBC – Full Article
• “Republican Prospects for Midterm Pickups Dim Amid Democratic Wins,” US News and World Report – Full Article
• Forecasts for 2022 Elections:
  
  • FiveThirtyEight
  • Politico

Perspectives

• “What Republicans Should Do if They Win Big this Fall,” The New York Times – Full Article
• “As momentum shifts, can Democrats defy history?,” The Hill – Full Article