APPROPRIATIONS/BUDGET NEWS

Revenge of the lame ducks

The House is out until Wednesday and the current CR expires on Friday, December 21st.

Congress has several paths to follow by then:

• Pass all 7 outstanding FY 19 appropriations bills,
• Pass 6 (Ag, CJS, FSGG, Interior, State/FOPs, THUD) bills and put HS into a CR (through January, February or September 30th),
• Pass a year long CR for all 7 bills, or
• End with a partial government shutdown

The New York Times reports that the outcome hinges on whether the Republicans can get enough votes to pass a bill with the President’s request for a $5B southern border wall. To do that, they need all hands on deck and currently they are seeing the “revenge of the lame ducks.”:

“…House Republican leaders are also confronting a more mundane and awkward problem: Their vanquished and retiring members are sick and tired of Washington and don’t want to show up anymore to vote.”

Appropriators want to finish their work and are not happy with the inaction:

“Some of the lawmakers who have helped negotiate the current spending bills have voiced frustration that their work – the first time in years that the two chambers had passed a number of spending bills in regular order – may be derailed in the closing moments of this year’s session.

“‘We have worked too hard,’ said Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska. ‘Let’s just get this done.'”

Senator McConnell’s role

The Hill reports that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is in a pivotal role this week.

He has said on the record that he doesn’t want a shutdown but President Trump’s declaration last week that he would proudly own a shutdown puts him in a tight spot.

[Trump’s] “statement flew in the face of the Senate GOP leadership’s strategy to blame the shutdown on Schumer and the Democrats.

“Still, McConnell’s priority is to maintain unity with Trump.

“‘It makes absolutely no sense to negotiate against yourself,’ said Josh Holmes, McConnell’s former chief of staff. ‘This is not a complicated issue.'”

This week is going to be about who will blink first as The Hill lays out the drama:

“It’s unclear what kind of bill Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), who is retiring at the end of the year, will bring to the House floor for a vote. It’s unclear how Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will treat anything that comes out of the House. And it’s unclear whether Trump will follow through on his threat to veto any spending bill that doesn’t give him the full $5 billion for the wall.”

White House is dug in

The Associated Press is reporting that it won’t be the White House that blinks first:

“‘We’re going to do whatever is necessary to build the border wall to stop this ongoing crisis of illegal immigration,’ White House senior adviser Stephen Miller said Sunday.”

“Asked if that meant having a government shutdown, he said: ‘If it comes to it, absolutely.'”

Or is it?

Politico Pro reported on Friday that the President might be coming around to some sort of a compromise:

“President Donald Trump is mulling the prospect of making a counter-offer to Democratic leaders that would prevent a partial government shutdown and kick the border wall fight into next year, according to two sources familiar with the negotiations.”

‘There is universal agreement that the decision about whether to keep the government open rests with the president. Trump said during a contentious, televised Oval Office meeting on Tuesday with House Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer that he would be ‘proud’ to shut down the government if Democrats refuse him the $5 billion in funding for his border wall.”

“But Trump appeared to backtrack on Thursday, writing in a tweet: ‘Let’s not do a shutdown, Democrats – do what’s right for the American people!'”

Stay tuned….

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Jerry Chouinard
Deep Water Point Legislative Affairs Lead
jerry.chouinard@deepwaterpoint.com

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APPROPRIATIONS/BUDGET NEWS

Off to a bad start

The Hill reports on today’s White House meeting between President Trump and Minority Leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer:

“President Trump on Tuesday engaged in an extraordinary argument with Democratic congressional leaders over his demand for border-wall funding, threatening a government shutdown if he does not get the money. “‘I will be the one to shut it down,’ he told House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) at the White House.”

Meeting summary from Politico:

“President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened to shut down large parts of the federal government over funding for his proposed border wall, openly quarreling with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in an extraordinary exchange that unfolded before the press in the Oval Office.

“Trump has railed against congressional Democrats for refusing to agree to his demand for $5 billion for a border wall, but on Tuesday he asserted that ‘one way or another it is going to be built’ and that he would have ‘no other choice’ but to shut down the government if he doesn’t get enough funding for the wall.

“‘I am proud to shut down the government for border security,’ Trump said.”

Today’s White House meeting – don’t expect much 

Congressional Minority Leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer will meet today at 11:30 AM with President Trump to discuss how to finalize the remaining seven FY 19 appropriations bills. The current CR funding those bills expires on December 21st.

Both sides are dug in over the amount of funding to be appropriated for the Trump wall. Trump wants $5B. Democrats will only go to $1.6B. Schumer and Pelosi put out a statement yesterday saying if there is a partial government shutdown it won’t be their fault:

“Republicans still control the House, the Senate, and the White House, and they have the power to keep government open. Our country cannot afford a Trump Shutdown, especially at this time of economic uncertainty. This holiday season, the president knows full well that his wall proposal does not have the votes to pass the House and Senate, and should not be an obstacle to a bipartisan agreement.”

Trump isn’t the only one making a deal seem highly impossible. The House Freedom Caucus drew a line in the sand last night with its statement:

“This is our last chance to address illegal immigration before Democrats take over the House. Republicans in Congress must fulfill our promise to the American people by building President Trump’s wall, ending catch and release, and securing our borders.”

Tweets from Sarah Ferris with Politico indicate that the Caucus had even more immigration demands:

“Freedom Caucus agreed tonight to only support a funding bill if it includes a full $5 billion for border wall and hard-line asylum language from Goodlatte immigration bill.”

“Freedom Caucus tonight took a vote to support $5B for border wall in omnibus — if it also ends the ‘catch and release’ immigration policy”

Putting all this together – Politico Playbook predicts gloom and doom ahead:

“– THE MOST LIKELY outcome at this moment is that Congress will have to fund DHS for a month until the beginning of Pelosi’s speakership. But we have a very tough time seeing the coalition that would be willing to pass such a bill out of the House. That would mark Republicans folding on the wall, since Democrats control the House come January.”

Politico reports on one speck of light that might soften President Trump’s stance:

“NEWSHOUR/MARIST POLL: ‘Americans Want Trump To Compromise On Border Wall’:  ‘As President Trump threatens to shut the government down if Congress does not approve funding for a southern border wall, most (57%) Americans think he should compromise to prevent gridlock, according to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. Furthermore, nearly seven in ten (69%) of Americans do not consider building a border wall between the United States and Mexico to be an immediate priority for the next Congress.'”

What could be in an omnibus bill?

SAC Vice Chairman Patrick Leahy made a floor statement yesterday indicating that reaching an agreement on most of the remaining appropriations bills wasn’t far-fetched:

“Six of the seven bills are nearly complete, with most funding issues resolved and only a few policy issues remaining.  We are working on a disaster package for the victims of Hurricanes Florence and Michael, the California wildfires, the Hawaii volcano, the earthquake in Alaska, and other disasters from this year that devastated the homes, communities, and lives of so many Americans. These bills could be finished in short order, put before Congress for a vote, and sent to the President for signature into law.”

Other Senators see the omnibus as an opportunity to include non-appropriations legislation. From The Hill:

“Senate Majority Whip  John Cornyn  (R-Texas) said Monday there could be a ‘path’ to linking a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill to year-end spending bill talks if more Republicans come on board.”

SAC Chairman Richard Shelby said last week he wanted to keep the omnibus as clean as possible.

Revised GOP tax bill

House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady released a revised tax bill yesterday. There is no chance this bill will go anywhere this year.

Politico reports on what was changed from last month’s bill that failed to attract enough GOP support to pass:

“Facing complaints from conservatives, Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), the chamber’s top tax writer, added some of their top priorities, including language repealing the decades-old Johnson amendment, which bars nonprofits from engaging in political activities.

“He also added controversial language backed by abortion opponents stipulating that ‘unborn children’ may be designated as beneficiaries of 529 education-savings accounts.

“At the same time, he dropped provisions reviving a batch of tax ‘extenders’ – hated by many conservatives, though they enjoy broad backing in the Senate.”

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For more information, contact:
Jerry Chouinard
Deep Water Point Legislative Affairs Lead
jerry.chouinard@deepwaterpoint.com

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APPROPRIATIONS/BUDGET NEWS

Path forward after yesterday’s WH meeting

Yesterday’s drama at the White House meeting with President Trump, and Minority Leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer has been covered extensively.

The question now is – where does Congress go from here and what will be the outcome?

A few takes from the media:

Bloomberg News quoted SAC SFOPS Chairman Lindsey Graham who welcomes the President’s push back:

“But Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina urged Trump to stick to his guns and demand full funding of the border wall.

“‘I think it’s something to be resolved about,’ Graham said. ‘I am ready to do this, enough is enough.'”

The Hill predicted that the White House encounter moved Washington “closer to a partial government shutdown.”

The paper quoted SAC Chairman Richard Shelby and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell – both of whom seem less certain that FY 19 can be resolved without a partial government shutdown:

“Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), who advised Trump in a private meeting last month to avoid a shutdown over the border wall, was not pleased.

“‘I’ve never said that myself. I’m always trying to work to fund the government … I think it’s a step in that direction [of a shutdown], obviously, at least the rhetoric.'”

“Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) expressed concern.

“‘I hope that’s not where we end up.’ – McConnell”

Politico Playbook ran through various resulting outcomes:

“– THE HOUSE is planning — at the moment — to take up a $5 billion wall funding bill. GOP leadership believes they’ll be able to get 218 on their own — Democrats are obviously not going to chip in to pass this. Republicans say rebuking NANCY PELOSI — who said the House can’t pass it — is enough to snap their crowd into action. We are a bit more skeptical they’ll be able to get this through. For example: 44 LAWMAKERS were out yesterday. Twenty of them are people who will not be returning next Congress. (Imagine the Republicans ending their eight-year majority by failing to pass this bill.)

“– IF THE HOUSE SOMEHOW manages to pass it, THE SENATE will then fail to get 60 votes on that bill, which could — in theory — reset this process by the end of this week.

“WE’RE A FEW FITS AND STARTS away from this process getting real.

“A SHUTDOWN REMAINS VERY LIKELY. It just doesn’t seem like a deal is in the works, or close to being thought about. And that brings us to this: How can Congress get out of this mess?

“… THE BASIC OFF-RAMP … It doesn’t seem as if the president is interested in any deal, and Democrats made clear their position yesterday. So the way out is: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP folds and allows Congress to pass a stopgap with the current border security funding structure, which he has already touted as being effective. He could probably extract some concessions around the edges to help him sell it to himself and his base. He’ll blame Democrats and he could say he’s going to come back next year with a request for more border money.

“– CAN CONGRESS KEEP GOVERNMENT CLOSED FOR NEARLY TWO WEEKS? There are 13 days between the funding deadline and when Democrats take over the House. PELOSI could begin the 116th Congress by passing a stopgap to end a partial shutdown. At that point, it would fly through the Senate and Trump would have to sign it. There are plenty of Democrats and Republican who think this is the most likely scenario at this moment.”

$1.6 Billion VS $1.3B for the Trump Wall

We have been writing that the Senate has offered President Trump $1.6B for his wall because that was the figure the SAC appropriated in the FY 19 HS bill.

The media has been reporting the amount is $1.3B.  The Hill explains where the lower number came from:

“Senate Democratic Leader  Charles Schumer  (N.Y.) is backing off his earlier proposal to spend $1.6 billion on border fencing, acknowledging opposition from House Democrats.

“‘One point six we believe could not pass the House. The two options we made are the better options to go,’ he said, referring to the counter offers that he and House Democratic Leader  Nancy Pelosi  (Calif.) offered Trump at a meeting earlier Tuesday.”

” Schumer and Pelosi instead proposed passing a stopgap spending measure for the homeland security appropriations bill that would keep border fencing funding at $1.3 billion, the same amount that Congress appropriated for fiscal year 2018.”

Appropriator objects to Redskins in the omnibus

If there is to be a FY 19 omnibus bill for the 6 or 7 unfinished bills, House and Senate Interior Ranking Members will oppose using the legislation to help the Redskins get a new stadium.

The Washington Post reported over the weekend that Dan Snyder, owner of the Redskins wants to use the omnibus to ensure he can build a new stadium on the old RFK stadium site.

Both Betty McCollum and Tom Udall who represent American Indians in their states spoke with the Washington Post:

“In an interview Monday, McCollum raised two objections – to the potential long-term private use of federal land without a thorough public process and to the team’s name, which she called a ‘racial slur.’

“‘That’s not something the federal government should be condoning, encouraging or be a part of,’ said McCollum, a co-chair of the Congressional Native American Caucus. ‘Is it because there are no tribes here that it’s okay – they really don’t exist; we can pretend that this doesn’t mean anything? It means a great deal to young Native American children, that means a great deal to Native American veterans. It means a great deal to me.’

“Sen. Tom Udall (N.M.), the ranking Democrat on the corresponding Senate Appropriations subcommittee, said Tuesday that he, too, would ‘fully oppose’ any effort to slip a stadium-related provision in the year-end bill.”

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For more information, contact:
Jerry Chouinard
Deep Water Point Legislative Affairs Lead
jerry.chouinard@deepwaterpoint.com

Contact Deep Water Point Today
to Increase Your Federal Business Win Probability
www.deepwaterpoint.com